博物馆类建筑工程费用估算研究

如何将建设资金控制在批复限额内,防止“三超”现象的出现,是博物馆类建筑投资估算编制的难点。分析博物馆类建筑的设计特点,梳理博物馆类建筑工程费用估算编制中的应注意的问题,总结出其不同于一般公共建筑工程费用构成的特点,旨在为博物馆类建筑工程费用估算的编制提供借鉴。     

Measuring destocking performance of the Chinese real estate industry: A DEA-Malmquist approach

This paper aims to measure the evolution of destocking performance of the Chinese Real Estate Industry based on a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis)-Malmquist approach, which is seldom used in this industry in existing literature. In 2016, the Chinese government introduced a unified national destocking policy to reduce real estate inventory to save the downturn in the real estate market, but the effect was less than expected and led to soaring house prices in first-tier cities. By analysing the destocking performance over the period from 2005 to 2015, we find the following: (1) It is impossible to use a unified policy to effectively address the national destocking issue because of the difference of DMUs' destocking efficiency, input redundancy and total factor productivity score changes. (2) With the current destocking performance and investment status, the government is still ignoring the existing commercial real estate problems. (3) The redundancy of firm assets and staff indicates that zombie firms may exist and risk future unemployment in the real estate industry. (4) Despite the recently repeated government interventions in this industry, destocking performance remains falling since 2008, and problems in other regions is more severe than in central cities. (5) The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has had a great impact on China's real estate industry. The destocking performance dropped sharply in 2008, forcing the Chinese government to introduce policies to stimulate the real estate market. Policy recommendations are also put forward based on the findings.     

Which formula for national happiness?

The World Happiness Report is published by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network and contains an international ranking of national average happiness, as measured by surveys of personal life evaluations. It also contains an analysis which tries to explain the happiness figures from more than 150 countries using data on six key variables. That analysis assumes the factors combine in an additive manner and therefore operate independently of each other. By contrast, we explore a multiplicative model, which allows for interactivity or synergy between factors, as well as the possibility of diminishing marginal benefit at higher levels of achievement. We find that this model provides a better fit to the data and is therefore superior in its explanatory power. The implication for policy-makers is that they should focus on improving those factors which are the lowest for their nation as this will provide greater relative benefits to subjective well-being. At an individual level this means focusing on improving conditions for those who are experiencing the lowest levels of well-being.     

Assessment of OECD Better Life Index by incorporating public opinion

Well-being has a multidimensional nature as it depends on multifaceted factors such as material conditions and quality of life. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has developed the Better Life Index (BLI) as part of the OECD Better Life initiative to facilitate the better understanding of what drives well-being of people. The BLI is a three-level hierarchical composite indicator that covers several socio-economic aspects. In this paper, considering the entire hierarchical structure of the index, we introduce a bottom-up procedure for the aggregation of the components at each level. We formulate the assessment of BLI as a multiple objective programming (MOP) problem that facilitates the implementation of different concepts to derive different aggregation schemes. We incorporate the data from previous years into the normalization process of the indicators, to take into account the discrepancy on their observed values and smooth their deviations across the years. Also, we consider the public opinion about well-being that is captured from the worldwide responses in the web platform of OECD BLI. We incorporate the public opinion into the assessment models in the form of weight restrictions. In this way, we reduce the effect of compensation that might be imposed by the adopted modelling approach. We apply our methodology to the data of 38 countries (35 OECD and 3 non-OECD economies) for the year 2017. Our findings illustrate that the public opinion in the form of weight restrictions can effectively drive the optimization process and depict the collective preferences to the BLI scores.     

A study of government 2.0 implementation in Indonesia

Web 2.0 has brought innovations in digital government, namely, government 2.0. Social media, as one part of Web 2.0, could potentially support fuller participation and public interaction. Social media enjoys a very high level of acceptance by individual users and government agencies around the world. Web 2.0 and social media usage in the public sector still needs to be tested from the perspective of not only the government but also the community as the recipient of services. Therefore, this study aims to answer the following research questions: How effective has government 2.0 implementation been in Indonesia? Is there a correlation between e-government management and government 2.0 implementation? We adopted the sophistication index (SI) by Bonson et al. (2012) [1] to answer the first research questions. The SI examined the presence of Web 2.0 features and social media applications on these government institutions’ websites. As to answer the second research question, we conducted parametric statistical tests to assess how e-government implementation, based on the Indonesian E-Government Rating (PEGI) score, has influenced the effectiveness of government 2.0 use by government institutions in Indonesia. We observed the websites and social media accounts of 116 Indonesian government institutions. According to the evaluation of Web 2.0 and social media use, the average SI score is 42%. These results indicate that, in general, government institutions in Indonesia have used Web 2.0 and social media features, although the adoption rate has not been equal. The correlations between the PEGI scores and SI values also suggest a positive relationship between the effectiveness of e-government implementation and the effectiveness of government institutions. Therefore, government institutions that have been effective in implementing e-government have also been effective in implementing government 2.0.     

The construction of a composite index for general satisfaction in Turkey and the investigation of its determinants

The goal of public enterprises is to increase the wealth and happiness of individuals. This target lets them make the investment to fulfill these expectations. However, not all citizens in a country might have the same opportunities. This case requires comparing citizens who live in cities with regard to satisfaction levels. This study consists of two stages. In the first stage, a composite index called the General Satisfaction Index (GSI), which aims to explain the satisfaction levels of citizens living in cities, is obtained by using the Benefit of the Doubt method. Contrary to the previous studies, the satisfaction indicators based on the emotions and senses of citizens are used to construct a composite index. Satisfaction indicators’ contribution to GSI is ensured using the minimum weights. In the second stage of this study, socioeconomic determinants of GSI are investigated in both countrywide and regions by using regularized regression methods. In the result of the regression analyze, it is confirmed that there are different socioeconomic determinants of satisfaction levels for countrywide and each region. For this reason, it is proposed that policymakers should follow different politicizes in each region to increase the satisfaction levels of citizens in the country.     

Intraday return and volatility spillover mechanism from Chinese to Japanese stock market

We analyze the mechanism of return and volatility spillover effects from the Chinese to the Japanese stock market. We construct a stock price index comprised of those companies that have substantial operations in China. This China-related index responds to changes in the Shanghai Composite Index more strongly than does the TOPIX (the market index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange). This result suggests that China has a large impact on Japanese stocks via China-related firms in Japan. Furthermore, we find evidence that this response has become stronger as the Chinese economy has gained importance in recent years.     

Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.     

The maturity effect of stock index futures: Speculation or carry arbitrage?

Using the implementation of trading restrictions on CSI 300 index futures market as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the maturity effect of stock index futures and its determinants. The results show that the maturity effect changes from weakly positive to significantly negative after trading restrictions are implemented. We find that the change in the maturity effect is rooted in the speculative effect, which is measured by the time pattern of price sensitivity to information, while there is a lack of support for the carry arbitrage effect on the maturity effect of index futures. Our findings provide an opportunity to better understand volatility dynamics in the equity futures market.     

长江经济带农业绿色生产效率及其时空分异特征研究

［目的］从静态分析和动态分析两个方面，阐释长江经济带农业绿色生产效率和农业绿色全要素生产率的时空分异特征以及生产率增长来源，以期为提高长江经济带农业绿色发展质量提供科学决策依据。［方法］文章基于资源环境约束的角度，利用MinDS模型和Global Malmquist Luenberger指数相结合的方法，测算长江经济带农业绿色生产效率和农业绿色全要素生产率，并将农业全要素生产率变化分解为纯技术效率变化（PEC）、纯技术变化（PTC）、规模效率变化（SEEC）和规模技术变化（SETC）4个部分。［结果］（1）长江经济带农业绿色生产效率水平较高，且呈不断增长趋势，下游地区的农业绿色生产效率高于中、上游，且中、上游与下游地区的差距不断拉大； （2）长江经济带农业绿色全要素生产率增长较快，以3年为1个周期，呈现波动式上升趋势，其增长主要源于纯技术进步和规模技术提高； （3）长江经济带下游农业绿色全要素生产率增长率最高，上游次之，中游最低，其中，下游农业绿色全要素生产率增长主要源于纯技术进步，中游是纯技术效率改进、纯技术进步和规模技术提高共同作用的结果，上游则源于纯技术效率改进、纯技术进步和规模效率提高。［结论］长江经济带上、中、下游三大区域的农业绿色发展水平和发展能力存在较大差异，需制定差异化政策，以调整农业增长模式，促进农业转型升级，实现高质量发展。